June 26, 2026

Russia’s Fuel Crisis Is Pushing the Kremlin Toward Kazakhstan

Grappling with a severe shortage, Russia is seeking to purchase a significant volume of gasoline from neighboring Kazakhstan. Astana appears hesitant to fulfill the request, however, apparently concerned that doing so might entail consequences for the Central Asian nation’s own energy exports.

The Reuters news agency first reported that Russian officials had approached Kazakh authorities seeking to obtain 50,000 tons of gas. Ukrainian drone attacks in recent months have devastated Russian refineries, creating a severe shortage and long lines at gas stations.

The attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have brought the war home for many Russians, piercing the information bubble created by state-controlled media designed to insulate the population from the reality of the ongoing campaign in Ukraine.

Kazakhstan has not committed to supplying Russia with gas, but at the same time has not said ‘no’ to a potential deal. A major Kazakh refinery is conveniently expected to undergo planned maintenance from June 26-30.

The Russian request puts Kazakhstan in a tough spot. An overwhelming share of Kazakh oil exports is transported to global markets via pipelines and ports in Russia. The Kremlin has not hesitated to use Kazakhstan's dependence on Russian transit routes to exert diplomatic leverage on Astana. For example, in April, Russia threatened to pause the flow of Kazakh oil to Germany. More serious for Kazakhstan’s state budget have been periodic disruptions to exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium route.

At the same time, any effort to ease Russia’s gas crunch could invite Ukrainian retaliation against Russian infrastructure critical to Kazakh energy exports. Ukraine’s proficiency in drone use has turned the tide of the war, some military analysts believe.

On June 19, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy threatened to attack Belarus with drone swarms unless Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko halts support for Russia’s war effort, including supplies of fuel used by the Russian army in Ukraine.

"When Mr. Lukashenko says that he does not want to be drawn into a war, he must be honest, at least to his people, because he [personally] cannot be drawn into a war – his whole country can be drawn into it, drawn by Russia,” Zelenskyy told journalists in Kyiv.